If I were a beginning investor

Disclaimer: I am not an expert so do your own research.

Here is what I would do if I were just starting out and knew what I know now.

1. Save up an emergency fund of at least 3 months of living expenses.
2. Pay off all debt except low interest mortgage and student loans, manage these debts to lower my risk. That is refinance if needed to keep monthly payments low as possible.
3. Save up more in my emergency fund of at least 6 months of living expenses.
4. Start saving up money for retirement. Figure out when I plan to retire and how much I will need. Plan how much I need to invest each month to achieve my plan.
5. Plan for education expenses for children.
6. Once I had enough money to cover the previous things I would start to invest more and speculate on things. I would study up on how to do this while saving up. I use www.investopedia.com for a source for investing information.

The paper Value Investing from an Austrian Point of View by Chris Leithner has a good Austrian perspective on investing. Here is his lecture also. 

An entrepreneur's business cycle theory - Conscience of an Entrepreneur

...what causes the business cycle, and especially the more pronounced "booms and busts". All the schools of monetary theory have their explanations. The Keynesians see the market economy as fundamentally unstable and in need of constant intervention, the Modern Monetary Theorists seem to think a bust is an unavoidable consequence of a prolonged imbalance of payments between the private and the public sector and the Austrians have a complex hypothesis about artificially low interest rates fooling entrepreneurs to "malinvest" in stages of production that are too far removed from the consumer...


Full article.

Jim Rogers Doesn’t Believe in Goldman Conspiracy Theories

What Buffett Didn't Tell You - The Motley Fool

Last Thursday, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B ) Chairman Warren Buffett published "Why stocks beat gold and bonds," an adapted excerpt from his upcoming shareholder letter. There is little to disagree with in the letter, but Buffett's exposition is a bit misleading, or at the very least, incomplete because he isn't explicit enough in spelling out his assumptions. Investors who follow his advice blindly, without understanding those assumptions, could achieve a very different result from the one Buffett describes.

Read full article

Is Greece Irrelevant to Global Markets?

Rogers: I Would Not Buy Facebook

Transcript

Will the Government Put Money Market Funds Out of Business? -Megan McArdle

Exert:

At last, the government is proposing new rules, which are supposed to make MMFs less risky.  The funds would have to raise new capital, and some minor withdrawal limitations would be imposed on customers.  They would also have to offer a floating net asset value instead of the current "guarantee" that if you deposit a dollar, you'll always get at least that dollar back.

The last is all by itself disastrous for these funds, whose main attraction is that they act like bank accounts.  As for the rest, in a normal interest rate environment, this would be onerous.  But with interest rates as low as they are, there's no way for MMFs to absorb the hit by offering a lower return; it looks to me as if the interest rate would probably have to be negative.  Which is to say, your MMF would actually be charging you for the privilege of giving you their money.

Full Article.

Why argue about roads, when I can own them.

I started thinking, why spend time trying to convince people that the private sector can build and manage roads?  Why not just own roads myself and collect a dividend? There are many publicly traded road companies.  Anyone with a stock brokerage account can be a road owner. So I decided to risk it, and invest a small amount in Road King Infrastructure and Abertis Infraestructuras. I did this partly as a vanity investment and bragging rights.   Now when someone claims that private sector could never fund or manage roads, I can brag about how I am a road owner and collecting a fat dividend, so I am a walking contradiction of that claim. However vanity investing does not always pay off. The two I bought have paid fat dividends in the past, but dividends can disappear, and I could lose a significant amount of my principle as well. The road stocks are higher risk stocks and not for everyone, so if you are thinking the same way as me do your homework before investing.

Here are two articles on publicly traded road companies to start your research:

For Whom the Road Tolls: Reviewing Listed Toll Roads, Bridges and Tunnels  

Another Approach to China: Toll Road Stocks

Disclosure: This is not intended as investment advice.   In other words don't blame me for losing your shirt in road stocks. Also I own Road King Infrastructure and Abertis Infraestructuras at the time of this post.

Marc Faber: Relax, Stocks Will Not Collapse

Full article.

Stocks Too Expensive? Not In Europe

With the Standard & Poor's 500 Index off to its best January in 15 years, it's getting tougher to find cheap stocks in the United States. But it's not much of a problem in Europe.

Sovereign default worries have made the region's shares the cheapest they've been to American investors since 2004. 

Full Article.

Europe's "Great Deleveraging" Has Only Just Begun (Zero Hedge)

Full Article.

States seek currencies made of silver and gold

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- A growing number of states are seeking shiny new currencies made of silver and gold.
Worried that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar are on the brink of collapse, lawmakers from 13 states, including Minnesota, Tennessee, Iowa, South Carolina and Georgia, are seeking approval from their state governments to either issue their own alternative currency or explore it as an option


Full Article.

The War on Iran and Gold-for-Oil

The Dailly Bell comments on RT video "EU bans oil import from Iran - India pays in Gold instead of Dollars China considers doing the same".


Full Article.

What is Austerity?

Bond Bubble? Marc Faber Says Time to Move Into Equities

In a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report Marc Faber certainly had gloom and doom to say when asked about the direction of U.S. bonds. The good news, however, is he believes equities should benefit (at least in the short term).

See the interview here.

Full  The Motley Fool article.

Gerald Celente on Trend Forecasting and the Crisis of Western Civilization

Gerald Celente talk about current trends, including Iran, international banking, US corporatism and more.

Full Article.

Value Investing from an Austrian Point of View

Chris Leithner:
This paper shows that value investors and Austrian School economists hold compatible
views about a range of fundamental economic and financial phenomena. These include
price and value; risk and arbitrage; capital and entrepreneurship; and time-preference and
interest. Indeed, with respect to these matters each group may have more in common
with the other than each has with the mainstream of its respective field. As background,
the paper uses the investment results of Leithner & Co. Pty Ltd, and a few of the
principles it has used to generate these results, to highlight and elaborate these
compatibilities.
To value investors, Austrian economics is (or should be) compelling because it subsumes
real economic and financial events within justifiable laws of human action. Unlike
mainstream economic and finance, Austrians not only acknowledge but also emphasise
the importance of entrepreneurship; indeed, Austrians acknowledge that sustained
entrepreneurial acumen, whilst hardly widespread, is nonetheless likely to exist. In turn,
value investing and the results achieved by prominent value investors may interest
Austrians because Grahamites hold quasi-Austrian views – or, at any rate, views that are
compatible to Austrian views – with respect to important economic and financial
principles. Value investors also illustrate the positive results that entrepreneurial action
can achieve. Despite the many follies of governments and mainstream economists and
investors, which often prompt value investors and Austrians alike to adopt rather dour
short-term outlooks, both Grahamites and Misesians are long-term optimists. To adopt
their approaches to economics and investment is ultimately to affirm a basic faith in
human nature, capitalism, one’s country and a future that will be at least as prosperous as
the present. The future envisaged by these economists and generated partly by these
investors helps to vindicate this faith.

Full paper.

Lecture.

An Investor's Introduction to Austrian Economics by Murray N. Rothbard

Audio only.

Jim Rogers: Lazy bank & ratings clique must take a hit (RT)

China Slowdown Is Certain, but Analysts Differ on How Much (CNBC)

Full Article.

Marc Faber, Jim Rogers clash over China and commodities, agree on gold

Full article.

'Hide a good part of your wealth in cash and wait for better times to invest in risk assets,' says Gary Dugan

Full article.

Faber: Most Europe, US Ratings Should Be Lower

Read Transcript.

Jim Rogers: Short on most emerging markets, including India

In an interview with ET Now, Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holdings, shares his outlook for commodities, gold and metals with a special reference to Indian markets. Excerpts:

ET Now: Are you a bit surprised with the US economic data? If I look at the tone of US economic data, of late things are looking upbeat for the US economy?

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Don't be Conned by the NIA -- Do not promote their videos

Rogers: US bright spot is just pre-election phenomenon

Veteran investor Jim Rogers said he is sceptical about the prospects for the US economy this year despite a recent string of positive economic data from the country.

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